Just for the fun of it, here are my predictions for the second-half finish in the Southeastern Conference. Some of these are based on past performance, some on wishful thinking; some I'll justify and some I won't. Make of it what you will.

At this time, some teams have played 8 games and some 9. I arbitrarily chose January 31 as the cutoff date, just because it's easier. Predictions are based on games from February 1 onward.

Tennessee won the first half of the conference race with a record of 7-1. All of those dire predictions of last year's "worst team ever" not being able to improve on their record proved to be groundless. They still are not playing like most of the championship teams, but they are playing well enough and like the Lady Vols of old--they find ways to win, no matter how improbable. I am predicting that they will finish the second half with a record of 6-2, for a combined 13-3 and a first place finish in the regular season.

The LSU Tigers will have the best second-half record (leap of faith, here) with a 7-1 record that will result in an 11-5 overall record and a tie for second place. The other second place team will be Georgia, assuming (and I am) that the Bulldogs will recover from the swoon they have been in since defeating the Tennessee Lady Vols. They will go 6-1 in the second half and get the second-place seeding in the SEC Tournament, by virtue of having beaten LSU in Athens, their only meeting in the regular season. That game is tomorrow, so we'll see fairly quickly if I am COMPLETELY on the wrong track or not--not that things haven't been changing quickly, thus far this season.

Fourth place also ends in a tie, between the two teams from Mississippi. Both the Mississippi State Bulldogs and the Ole Miss Lady Rebels will roll into the tournament with 10-6 records. I can't tell you who wins the tie-breaker, because I don't remember what comes after the head-to-head record and these two teams will split their meetings.

But fifth place is going to be a 3-way tie, which is even more interesting! That's because it will be occupied by Vanderbilt, who don't seem to have figured out what kind of team they are yet; South Carolina, who will finish the season on a mild high, going 5-2 and Kentucky, who will go into a swoon (much like Georgia's) and stumble to a disappointing 3-5 second half record. Again, I can't tell you who will be seeded where for the tournament. I know that Kentucky is expecting to storm into the Top 4, probably to retain their current #2 slot; I just don't think it will happen.

Down to the sub .500 teams:

Florida owns the #9 slot, with a 6-10 record, overall, after running into a bunch of teams seeing their top-tier finishes slipping away without a win over the Gators. They will suffer a 7-game losing streak, not winning again until they meet Alabama in the final regular-season game.

Auburn will be one of the more promising teams, showing a lot of energy but not a lot of wins, as they finish 2-5 for a 5-9 record overall.

Arkansas will be rejoicing at the luck of having Alabama on their schedule twice, this season. Those two games will be their only wins in the conference, as they finish 1-7 and 2-14 overall.

Alabama will be in the cellar for the second straight year, finishing 0-7 and 1-15. However, they will hang onto head coach Wendell Hudson for at least another season.

 

Final results:

Tennessee: 13-3

Georgia: 11-5

LSU:  11-5

Ole Miss:  10-6

Mississippi State:  10-6

Vanderbilt:  9-7

South Carolina: 9-7

Kentucky: 9-7

Florida:  6-10

Auburn:  5-9

Arkansas:  2-14

Alabama:  1-15

 

The middle five teams in this group have been so hot and cold that I wouldn't be totally surprised to see that group completely reversed in the final standings, but I kind of expect the top 3 teams to be the 3 I've picked and the bottom 4 to be the same.  The middle of the conference should be a really wild ride. It looks like a pretty good bet for this year's tournament champion to have a chance to come out of the pack somewhere and pull an upset.

Now, I'm going to sit back and see how it all turns out.