As the Southeastern Conference women’s basketball conference schedule starts within a matter of days, I thought I’d try something I haven’t done before (at least, not in print) and issue a sort of conference preview and predictions for the final, pre-tournament standings. Like everyone else who does this (including Charlie Creme and other much better-known sorts) these are based on what I’ve seen and what I think–which is undoubtedly different from what a lot of other women’s basketball fans think. I’d like to think that it’s at least partially based on an "educated" guess and years of observation, but I also know that some of it relies on my personal biases–no matter how hard I try to hide them. So feel free to formulate your own predictions. I know I’ll be looking back, later, to see how I did and maybe even learn something from it. So here goes.

1) Tennessee. It’s a rebuilding year, yes, but they’re still loaded with talent and tradition and have the winningest coach in the universe to lead the way. Anyone who watched the game against Rutgers, last weekend, has to give Tennessee a little respect–and how far did your mouth hang open as you listened to Pat deliver her halftime talk with so much restraint? Not a hint of the foot-stomping tirades we have sometimes been treated to–and which I get a giggle out of seeing. It’s a different sort of team and Pat’s giving them a different sort of leadership, which is a sign of the kind of flexibility that is needed to lead a team far into the Madness of March. It won’t be an easy season and it won’t be an undefeated season, but they will end up on top. (12-2 and a trip to the NCAA Tournament, reaching the Elite Eight) I know, I know. Everyone else is picking Vanderbilt to win the conference–but not me.

2) Auburn. Surprise! It’s now or never for this team with it’s talented veteran players. Well, maybe not NEVER–but the moment is right, right now. Their toughest SEC opponents (except for Vandy) are all coming to Beard-Eaves-Memorial Coliseum this season, so if they can conjure up some home-court advantage, win the games (on the road) that they should win and pick up where they left off last season–they could finish 11-3. (11-3 and a trip to the NCAA Tournament, with a very favorable seeding and a Final Four Finish) Call this the Upset Special if you think I’m crazy. I sure hope Nell Fortner, DeWanna Bonner and company will make me look good.

Tie:3) Vanderbilt. Out of sheer stubbornness, I wanted to pick them lower, but they’re a pretty good team. However, Liz Sherwood–who basically anchored that 25-9 team–is gone and I’m personally not very impressed with the quality of their non-conference opponents. Though they are currently 11-4, I think some of those 11 are kind of cheap. Or maybe it’s just my bias showing. At any rate, I think they’ll look pretty good in the conference this year. Good enough to rack up (10-4 and an NCAA Tournament berth, out in the 2^nd round)

Tie:3) Georgia. Yes, they looked BAD sometimes, early on, but it’s the record (and the progress made) by the END of the season that means the most. They were 23-10 last season and though they lost Tasha Humphrey, Megan Darrah and 3 other letter-winners, they also return a lot of the offense and support. They’ll be more balanced without Humphrey to fall back on. They’ll suffer some embarrassments, but they’ll survive and scratch and claw their way to a record of (10-4. NCAA Tournament, 2^nd round)

4) Florida. They’re not as loaded as Auburn, but in a similar situation. It’s time to make a move for Marshae Dotson, Sha Brooks and Aneika Henry, as they will all be gone next season and a messy transition will ensue, with 7 guards trying to fight their way into the starting lineup. (Along with 2 sophomore centers and a junior center) Now is the time, Gators. (9-5, NCAA Tournament bid and out in the first round)

5) LSU. This team has just lost too much talent and experience to rebound (not literally) effectively, this season. Among the 4 returning players (plus a transfer and a junior college player) there are 2 games worth of starting experience. They have 8 freshmen on the roster–one of whom has already announced her intention to transfer. No doubt they are good players and Van Chancellor can coach, but they won’t be back in the Final Four this season. Currently 6-5 (with some very decent competitors on the schedule) they will have a winning conference record, but not by much. (8-6, WNIT bid and out in the 2^nd round)

6) South Carolina. A young team that will be–miraculously–even younger, next year. The three seniors on this year’s team are getting the hang of leading the way and the current crop of young players are getting tons of experience. They are learning a lot of tough lessons, this season, along with some experience in how to persevere through the tough times. They are already tough enough to manage a .500 record in the conference. OK, this is based on my personal bias AND a little wishful thinking. But we’ll compare notes at the end of the season when I can, hopefully, say: I told you so. (7-7 and WNIT berth, out in the 3^rd round)

7) Ole Miss. The Rebels are currently 11-4 and do not have one of the more impressive non-conference schedules, either. But they do return 4 starters and 3 additional letter-winners from a squad that went 13-16 last season. On the other hand, they also lost 1 starter and 6 more letter-winners, so there’s a lot of adjusting to do for this season. I just don’t think they can get it all done in time to function as a contender in the conference. (6-8, WNIT bid and out in the 3^rd round)

8) Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are currently 12-2. Pretty impressive, huh? And 11 of 14 players are juniors or seniors, but that’s not really as good as it sounds. Sharon Fanning has imported an entire front line from Kinshasa, Congo by way of Southeastern Illinois College. It’s a gamble that has apparently paid off during the non-conference season, judging by their record. But I’m expecting the whole team to find conference play a little more challenging. Or maybe a lot more challenging. (4-10, end of season)

Tie: 9) Kentucky. Another young team. Three seniors, yes, but only one has significant playing experience, which is pretty much the case with the junior class, too. Mitchell has 3 transfers on the roster, but the best of the lot (Rebecca Gray from UNC) will be sitting out this season, as per NCAA requirements. They will really miss Samantha Mahoney and Sarah Elliott, from last season. Really. 12-5 at present, they will lose nearly as many as they’ve won. (3-11, end of season)

Tie: 9) Arkansas. Like so many SEC teams this season, this one is very young. They’ve been starting 2 freshmen and a sophomore for much of this season, so far. The results aren’t bad, at 11-4 but the non-conference schedule is a little bit suspect. At some point, playing a bunch of patsies will come back to haunt you. Usually, that point is the beginning of the conference season. That’s this Thursday and when the smoke clears, the LadyBacks will be (3-11, end of season)

10) Alabama. There’s still a lot of talent left over from Stephany Smith’s reign, but booting her out before her own recruits could graduate may have set them back a ways. They were 8-22 last season and with a new coach to adjust to, there will be some growing pains and setbacks. And how much farther back can you go than 1-13? They’ll actually make progress, 2-12.

So, let’s meet back here in March and compare my results with what actually happened.